iPhone Prediction: A look at the iPod’s history compared to the future of Apple’s latest product

Amid all of the iPhone hype, there are some who declare that you must run out and purchase it instantly (and very possibly risk your life doing so) while there are many others (often labeled Apple haters) who harshly proclaimed the many shortcomings of the iPhone and the need to wait for a second or even third generation product. I tend to classify myself with the latter. Let me assure you though that I am not an Apple hater of any sort. I absolutely love my iPod and I carry it around with me everywhere I go. iTunes also has a great user interface and is a favorite program of mine. However, Apple has a very strong marketing department and knows how to appeal to the emotions of the masses. Therefore, the company has the ability to sell a lot – even more than half a million units – of a product that is almost entirely sold as a status symbol.

So, my take? Wait a couple years (or however long it takes!) for Apple to release a new model iPhone. Why? Let me explain…

The iPhone lacks many features that are currently available in other “smart phones.” Primarily the list includes such features as 3G, removable memory, GPS, complete email and Bluetooth compatibility, and a replaceable battery.

Why on earth would you drop $600 for a phone that lacks so many vital elements? Granted, the thing is drop-dead gorgeous. Aesthetically, it seems impossible to be improved.

Now, some consumers may argue that they remember back in the day when they reluctantly opened their wallets for their first iPod and have since never regretted that purchase. I’m one of them. But, easily brushed to the side is the pesky requirement to sign a 2 year AT&T Cingular contract with a mandatory data plan (you’re obviously going to want to use that fancy Safari browser and email client with your new touch screen, right?). At this point, you’re looking at a new iPhone price of roughly $1100 for just your first year of service – and that’s the cheap man’s plan! Stings a little, eh?

My prediction goes something like this: the iPhone feature enhancements and price fluctuation between models will mimic that of the iPod. Give me a minute now to dive back into Apple’s history of the iPod…

· 1st gen iPod: $499 for the 10 GB model – lacked many features
· 2nd gen iPod: $499 for the 20 GB model – introduced features which were improved in later models (e.g. touch-sensitive wheel)
· 3rd gen iPod: $499 for the 40 GB model – backlit screen (Who would EVER listen to their music in the dark??? :-o)
· 4th gen iPod: $449 for the 60 GB model – a.k.a. “The Photo iPod” (small screen though…)
· 5th (or 5.5) gen iPod: $349 for the 80 GB model – ahem, is that a $100 price drop I see from the 4th generation model coupled with a 20 GB enhancement in storage capacity? Oh, and videos too? *These stats from Wikipedia

Alright, it did take roughly 5 years and 5 models to reach the break off point where both the price and features headed in acceptable directions, bottom digging and sky probing respectively. But… that’s not going to even begin to make me start shaking in my boots. The only quivering I’ll be doing is the chills running down my back when I see the prince charming of iPhones emerge into the cellular (or is it Wi-Fi, or MP3 player, or Bluetooth, or media player, or…) market.

Consumers are often admittedly rough on their mobile phones, taking them to the beach, Schlitterbahn, sports games, and other environments unfriendly to technology. (Which is another reason the 2 year contract is nuts!) Also, I promise you that rival companies are not going to sit around and sulk, wishing that they had the patent on the iPhone. Rather, they’ll be busy as elves before Christmas trying to improve their own devices and push further the boundaries now marked by Apple’s masterpiece.

Seriously, if you want something that will hold 8 GB of data, then head over to your closest Circuit City and pick up an 8 GB compact flash USB key for $80 bucks – save your other $1000 for a next generation product. Prices on solid state memory are going to plummet faster than a bowling ball over the next few years while their capacity increases exponentially. If your mom understood what the heck an iPhone was I’m sure she would pat you on the back for that move.

This is one time that jumping on the bandwagon early isn’t going to earn you any brownie points – sorry Charlie…

Think about it this way – PC World magazine recently wrote a short snippet about the progress of standard 3.5 inch desktop HDD’s and noted that 5 Terabyte internal hard drives are expected within 5 years. I mean, if you can have 1,000 GB of storage capacity inside a desktop system TODAY for less than $300 then why would you settle for a phone that has no removable memory and only a measly eight gigabytes to store contacts, photos, music, videos, messages, and more? Come now, Apple…

Oh, did I forget? You can’t change the batter either… drop your old cell phone in water, take out the batter, wait a couple days, put it back together, and the thing should power up fine – drop your Apple iPhone in water and… ummm… you cry.

So, don’t go invest in an iPhone just yet. Play Apple’s game for a while. And, if you’re one of the owners of the half a million units already sold, try hacking your new toy (maybe you won’t feel ripped off if you learn something about hardware in the process ;-).

** Shout out to Apple: Don’t make iPhone users pay to download previously purchased songs in iTunes again in order to be used as a ringtone! Want to support a DRM free world? Don’t make yourself look like a whale scooping the krill! **